Saturday, April 30, 2011

UFC 129 Predictions

Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields
A lot of people are saying that it would be a big mistake to underestimate Shields in this fight, and there is no doubt that he will be one of the toughest fighters GSP has faced in awhile.  But so was Dan Hardy, and GSP has little troubles getting a hold or an armbar against Hardy, regardless of Hardy refusing to tap.  There seems to be little chance of Shields being able to rely on superior ground skills, and his standup simply doesn't compare to GSP.
GSP wins by decision

Jose Aldo vs. vs Mark Hominick
Hominick is certainly an exciting fighter to watch, and very skilled.  Howver, I was suprized at this match, as Aldo is a fantastic fighter, and is clearly on another level compared to Hominick.  The match against Faber proved that in my book.
Jose Aldo wins, round 2 submission


Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
This is supposedly going to be Randy's last fight, and I have to wonder how many people out there are picking Randy for the simple reason of retiring on a win.  The fact that they are ignoring is that Machida has lost 2 in a row and really needs a win.  Add to that the fact that Randy's strategy is based on keeping people down or in a corner, and Machida is an extremely elusive fighter on stand-up.
Lyoto Machida wins by decision


Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz
Apparently, a lot of people have Brilz as the favorite in this one, and with his last fight against Nog with little notice, I can see why.  However, Brilz has had 11 months off since then, and has been plagued with a back injury.  It pays to do your homework on this fight, as Vladimir is a veteran who will certainly take advantage of any ring rust.
Vladimir Matyushenko wins, round 3 TKO

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson
Bocek is a B.J.J. black belt, and will certainly dominate on the ground.  However, Henderson is simply the more experienced, all around fighter.  It will certainly be a good fight to watch.
Ben Henderson by split decision


Undercard:

Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald
Nate Diaz wins by decision


Sean Pierson vs. Jake Ellenberger
Seems very likely Jake will pull off the win, the only question is how.
Jake Ellenberger, round 3 TKO

Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen
Jason MacDonald has a height and reach advantage here, and his fighting style will play well to that advantage.
Jason MacDonald wins, TKO in round 2